Frontier Markets

Cuba Lingers at Commercial Sideline

Greater economic opportunity is top-of-mind for most Cubans. That point is to be expected, but it was affirmed in a rare public-opinion survey completed last year by a group from University of Chicago. The troublesome finding is that only three-in-ten Cubans think that the economy will improve over the next three years, indicating that Havana is floundering in its reform efforts. Do the survey results pave the way for greater foreign investment in Cuba? Probably not, at least over the near-term. The White House needs to corroborate the more liberal ties put in place under the Obama administration; it now claims that US policy toward Cuba is under full review. Lack of direction means that US-sourced investment is just a drip. In a sign of the times, US airlines are either scaling back route commitments to Cuba or are using smaller planes. The hoopla seen last March when Obama visited Cuba was disproportionate to now-faltering potential.

Our Vantage Point: Cubans aspire for the good life, but that will be hard to achieve without an external economic boost. The current state of US-Cuba ties muddles the outlook for foreign investment.

Learn more at The New York Times

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